TY - Generic T1 - Extreme Values in Short-Term 20 m Sequential Matched WSPR Observations T2 - HamSCI Workshop 2024 Y1 - 2024 A1 - Robert B. Gerzoff A1 - Nathaniel A. Frissell AB -

Automated amateur radio networks, such as WSPRnet, daily compile data on hundreds of millions of radio contacts. This wealth of information is valuable for researchers exploring and forecasting High-Frequency (HF) propagation and its correlation with solar phenomena. A prerequisite for meaningful investigations is a comprehensive understanding and documentation of the inherent variability present in the data. Prior investigations highlighted the extreme short-term variability in SNR reports from 20-meter sequential matched observations, variability in excess of usual distributional assumptions.  Here, we describe and model those extreme observations.  Using descriptive statistics and logistic regressions, we provide evidence of some temporal and spatial patterns associated with the extreme SNR values and develop predictions for their occurrence.

JF - HamSCI Workshop 2024 PB - HamSCI CY - Cleveland, OH ER - TY - Generic T1 - Possible Drivers of Large Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances by Analysis of Aggregated Ham Radio Contacts T2 - HamSCI Workshop 2024 Y1 - 2024 A1 - Diego Sanchez A1 - Mary Lou West A1 - Nathaniel A. Frissell A1 - Gareth W. Perry A1 - William D. Engelke A1 - Robert B. Gerzoff A1 - Philip J. Erickson A1 - J. Michael Ruohoniemi A1 - Joseph B. H. Baker A1 - V. Lynn Harvey AB -

Large Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (LSTIDs) are quasiperiodic electron density perturbations of the F region ionosphere that have periods of 30 min to over 180 min, wavelengths of over 1000 km, and velocities of 150 to 1000 m/s. These are seen as long slow oscillations in the bottom side of the ionosphere in data from ham radio contacts at 20 meters wavelength on roughly a third of the days in a year. They might be triggered by electromagnetic forces from above, and/or by mechanical pressures from below. The explosion of the Tonga volcano on January 15, 2022 revealed that such a LSTID could be triggered by a violent updraft from the Earth’s surface into the stratosphere and then detected in the ionosphere over the United States nine hours later. We consider other possible drivers such as the auroral electrojet, the polar vortex, thunderstorms, zonal wind speeds, gravity wave variances, and their time derivatives in 2017.

JF - HamSCI Workshop 2024 PB - HamSCI CY - Cleveland, OH ER - TY - Generic T1 - Medium Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances and their Connection to the Lower and Middle Atmosphere T2 - HamSCI Workshop 2023 Y1 - 2023 A1 - Nathaniel A. Frissell A1 - Francis Tholley A1 - V. Lynn Harvey A1 - Sophie R. Phillips A1 - Katrina Bossert A1 - Sevag Derghazarian A1 - Larisa Goncharenko A1 - Richard Collins A1 - Mary Lou West A1 - Diego F. Sanchez A1 - Gareth W. Perry A1 - Robert B. Gerzoff A1 - Philip J. Erickson A1 - William D. Engelke A1 - Nicholas Callahan A1 - Lucas Underbakke A1 - Travis Atkison A1 - J. Michael Ruohoniemi A1 - Joseph B. H. Baker JF - HamSCI Workshop 2023 PB - HamSCI CY - Scranton, PA ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Amateur Radio: An Integral Tool for Atmospheric, Ionospheric, and Space Physics Research and Operations JF - White Paper Submitted to the National Academy of Sciences Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) 2024-2033 Y1 - 2022 A1 - Nathaniel A. Frissell A1 - Laura Brandt A1 - Stephen A. Cerwin A1 - Kristina V. Collins A1 - David Kazdan A1 - John Gibbons A1 - William D. Engelke A1 - Rachel M. Frissell A1 - Robert B. Gerzoff A1 - Stephen R. Kaeppler A1 - Vincent Ledvina A1 - William Liles A1 - Michael Lombardi A1 - Elizabeth MacDonald A1 - Francesca Di Mare A1 - Ethan S. Miller A1 - Gareth W. Perry A1 - Jonathan D. Rizzo A1 - Diego F. Sanchez A1 - H. Lawrence Serra A1 - H. Ward Silver A1 - David R. Themens A1 - Mary Lou West ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Fostering Collaborations with the Amateur Radio Community JF - White Paper Submitted to the National Academy of Sciences Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) 2024-2033 Y1 - 2022 A1 - Nathaniel A. Frissell A1 - Laura Brandt A1 - Stephen A. Cerwin A1 - Kristina V. Collins A1 - Timothy J. Duffy A1 - David Kazdan A1 - John Gibbons A1 - William D. Engelke A1 - Rachel M. Frissell A1 - Robert B. Gerzoff A1 - Stephen R. Kaeppler A1 - Vincent Ledvina A1 - William Liles A1 - Elizabeth MacDonald A1 - Gareth W. Perry A1 - Jonathan D. Rizzo A1 - Diego F. Sanchez A1 - H. Lawrence Serra A1 - H. Ward Silver A1 - Tamitha Mulligan Skov A1 - Mary Lou West ER - TY - Generic T1 - Short-Term Variability Associated with 20 Meter Sequential Matched WSPR Observations: A Statistical Exploratory Study T2 - HamSCI Workshop 2022 Y1 - 2022 A1 - Robert B. Gerzoff A1 - Nathaniel A. Frissell AB -

Automated amateur radio networks such as the Reverse Beacon Network and WSPRnet record details about hundreds of millions of radio contact contacts that investigators can use to study and ultimately predict HF propagation and its relationship to solar phenomena. However, before researchers can undertake such investigations, it is crucial to understand and document the variability inherent in the measurements provided by these networks. Here, we investigated the short-term variability associated with the signal-to-noise(SNR) reports from WSPRnet. Specifically, we analyzed 2,286,311 pairs of 20 meter WSPR SNR reports observed between Jan 2017 and July 2021. Each pair consisted of two sequential WSPR observations between the same two stations, i.e., the paired observations were separated by a single WSPR time slot of two minutes.  To describe the SNR variability, we present the SNR distributional characteristics and use Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) to explore the influence of the time of day, the month of the year, and the azimuth between the stations. The models predicted the absolute SNR difference between the sequential observations. Model errors were adjusted to account for multiple observations of pairs of stations. To account for the non-gaussian data distribution, the GLMs assumed a gamma distribution with a log link. Because this study was exploratory, we included all three covariates as categorical variables rather than imposing a particular model form. The three models reported here consist of a fully specified two-way interaction between two of the three covariates, i.e., both main effects and interaction.   Computing resource limitations limited the complexity of the models investigated. Based upon the predicted model averages, two sequential WSPR reports typically vary by 6 dB. Deviations from this average are apparent by month, hour, and azimuth between the reporting stations, and we show those graphically. Future research should increase the complexity of the models to incorporate other covariates, e.g., distance or latitude, ultimately tying these data to solar and atmospheric phenomena.

JF - HamSCI Workshop 2022 PB - HamSCI CY - Huntsville, AL ER -