What is the ITU-R-HF Model and How Could it Be Used in a HF Contesting Dashboard?

The ITU-R HF propagation model is a method for mathematically determining the chance as a percentage of being able to reach a given performance criterion. It can be used to model an expected Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR), Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF), or Field Strength over a given month. It uses known mathematical models of the ionosphere to determine generalized propagation through the E and F2 layers of the ionosphere and gives considerably accurate predictions. Our goal is to use this method with a currently existing HF contesting dashboard that utilizes the Personal Space Weather Station (PSWS) to determine if appropriate conditions exist for making a contact in real time. Through ITU-R recommendations and with programming assistance from Anthropic’s Claude.ai, we are working to integrate these scientific modeling methods with real-time data with the PSWS. After successful implementation of the ITU-R HF model, we can use model assimilation techniques to achieve higher accuracy predictions. Using the technology, we will be able to achieve more accurate band opening prediction, DX propagation prediction, and ionospheric modeling.